With the division at stake Sunday, Josh Allen did more than position the Bills for their second straight AFC East title.
He passed Bill Belichick’s final test.
Like several elite quarterbacks before him, Allen was forced to be patient and sift through soft, disguised coverages Sunday that denied him his beloved deep ball. So, he waited them out.
Next, Belichick mixed in more man-to-man. So, Allen slung darts at mismatches for first downs.
Then, the Patriots unleashed zone blitzes, switching man-coverage schemes and pressure on one-third of Allen’s dropbacks. Unfazed, he led Buffalo into the history books, becoming the first team to never punt against a Belichick-coached defense.
Overall, Allen pulled off a master class of modern quarterbacking, completing off-platform throws and extending several plays, while maintaining a down-to-down discipline to take what Belichick gave him. Allen repeatedly opted for checkdowns in the first half in the face of cushy zone, especially two-high coverages. When the Patriots introduced more man-to-man in the second half, Allen zeroed in on his mismatches: anyone versus Stefon Diggs and Isaiah McKenzie roasting second-year defensive backs Myles Bryant.
In man-to-man, Bryant allowed McKenzie to catch five of six targets for 65 yards, including a couple back-breakers on Buffalo’s last touchdown drive that clinched the game. In zone, McKenzie posted similar numbers, running away from defenders on deep crossing routes that reduced their pre-snap leverage to dust. Allen’s discipline to play matchup football amplified his immense natural gifts, and essentially made him unstoppable. #Patriots film: Bill Belichick went into his bag to stop Josh Allen, and it just didn't matter. Safety zone blitz with Christian Barmore dropping on third-and-10, Allen escapes and makes a "no, no, no, yes!" throw across his body to move the chains. pic.twitter.com/aR4Q0DLHm9 — Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) December 27, 2021
#Patriots film: Bill Belichick went into his bag to stop Josh Allen, and it just didn't matter.
Safety zone blitz with Christian Barmore dropping on third-and-10, Allen escapes and makes a "no, no, no, yes!" throw across his body to move the chains. pic.twitter.com/aR4Q0DLHm9
— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) December 27, 2021
To steal from the late, great Denny Green, the Bills are who we thought they were in Week 1: a more well-rounded football team led by a superior quarterback. Allen outclassed Mac Jones, and that is what separated them from the Patriots on Sunday and perhaps for the season.
Here’s what else film revealed about Sunday’s loss: Mac Jones
Under pressure: 2-10, 41 yards, INT
Against the blitz: 4-9, 43 yards
10-19 yards: 3-11, 54 yards, INT
The rookie played his worst game of his career at the wrong time, throwing an inaccurate pass on almost half his attempts. The Bills also denied him easy yards on play-action, where he went 4-of-11 for 42 yards and a pick. Ultimately, Jones was handed nothing against the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense, and couldn’t crack it himself.
Sunday’s performance would be less worrisome if it wasn’t part of a growing trend. Jones has played his worst football down the stretch, albeit against two top-12 pass defenses the past couple weeks. But before his first meeting with the Bills, he survived several mistakes against a so-so Titans defense in late November, particularly downfield. Related Articles Patriots expected to add backup QB Brian Hoyer to COVID-19 reserve list Patriots are planning to trip up Trevor Lawrence Josh McDaniels: ‘No concern’ of rookie wall for Patriots QB Mac Jones Patriots preparing for all scenarios regarding Matthew Judon and others on the COVID-19 list Guregian: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings
Jones’ lack of downfield touch Sunday was reminiscent of that Tennessee win, another game that kicked off at exactly 37 degrees. Could it be the weather? Studs
Van Noy registered a game-high five pressures, including one hard hit on Allen. The Patriots defense failed at virtually every level, but little blame can be placed at the feet of No. 53. Duds
Tough day at the office for Bryant. The second-year defensive back helped hold Bills starting slot receiver Cole Beasley to a single catch three weeks earlier, but got smoked by Beasley’s backup.
Jones’ performance has already been covered, but it deserves repeating one more time: he was atypically inaccurate, made poor decisions and held the offense back. These were major rookie pains.
Judon was a non-factor most of the day, notching only one pressure and a penalty to match. The Patriots needed more from their top edge rusher, though it seems COVID-19 may have held him back, with Judon landing on COVID-19 reserve Monday. Offensive notes Personnel breakdown: 50% of snaps in 11 personnel, 22% in 12 personnel, 22% in 22 personnel, 2% in 21F personnel, 1.5% in 21H personnel, 1.5% in jumbo personnel.* Personnel production: 4.2 yards/play in 11 personnel, 5.8 yards/play in 12 personnel, 3.7 yards/play in 22 personnel, 15 yards/play in 21F personnel, 0 yards/play in 21H personnel and 2 yards/play in jumbo personnel. Pressure rate allowed: 33% Play-action rate: 33% Yards per carry: 5.5 First downs: 52% run (7.2 yards per play), 48% pass (4.8 yards per play) Third downs: 1-10 Red-zone efficiency: 3-3 Broken tackles: Damien Harris Sacks allowed: David Andrews QB hits allowed: Trent Brown, Ted Karras, Shaq Mason, Team Hurries allowed: Isaiah Wynn 3, Team 2, Andrews, Brown Run stuffs allowed: Team 3, Andrews Holding penalties: Jonnu Smith Drops: Brandon Bolden, N’Keal Harry The Patriots returned to the six offensive linemen package that bullied the Bills in Buffalo on Dec. 6, but averaged only 4.1 yards per carry Sunday. The Bills made several small personnel adjustments against that package, deploying heavier players on the strongside of the Pats’ formations and more 4-3 personnel overall. Damien Harris’ final touchdown aside, their adjustments did the trick. Harris, however, broke only a single tackle, indicating his 100-yard day was a greater credit to the offensive line and clever play-calling early on. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels lived on the edges, calling for jet sweeps, tosses, screens and even a speed option; the hope being to force the Bills to tackle in space. But the diversity in the Pats’ run game could only carry them for so long. Penalties, drops, Jones’ inaccuracy and an interception put them into a 10-point halftime hole, a deficit they could never overcome playing alongside a leaky defense. How the Patriots’ playoff odds break down after losing to the Bills
How the Patriots’ playoff odds break down after losing to the Bills
Jones was already fighting an uphill battle against the Bills, who have allowed four touchdown passes to seven interceptions in their 10 meetings with the Patriots since head coach Sean McDermott took over. No one defends McDaniels’ passing scheme better. Buffalo’s man-to-man coverage on early downs seemed to surprise the Patriots, while in zone the Bills played as if Pats tight end Hunter Henry ran with his own gravitational pull. This eliminated Henry — Jones’ favorite target it key situations — until the fourth quarter. Safety Jordan Poyer later explained stopping Henry and mixing coverages were keys to their plan. Poyer and fellow safety Micah Hyde locked him up in man-to-man. Out wide, the Patriots never threated Buffalo’s man coverage, with N’Keal Harry replacing Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne recently coming off COVID-19 reserve. Despite receiving more playing time, Harry was a net negative with his brutal drop. Up front, no offensive linemen escaped unscathed upon further review. Trent Brown and David Andrews played two of their worst games of the season, while Wynn again led the team in hurries allowed. Defensive notes Personnel breakdown: 61% three-cornerback nickel package, 26% dime, 8% three-safety nickel package, 5% base.** Pressure rate: 31% Blitz rate: 22.4% Blitz efficacy: 3.7 yards allowed per dropback, TD Yards per carry allowed: 4.1 Third downs: 6-12 Red-zone efficiency: 2-3 Sacks: None QB hits: Matt Judon, Christian Barmore, Kyle Dugger, Lawrence Guy, Kyle Van Noy Hurries: Van Noy 4, Jamie Collins 3, Barmore 2, Ja’Whaun Bentley Run stuffs: Davon Godchaux Interceptions: None Pass deflections: J.C. Jackson, Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips, Judon Missed tackles: Jackson 3, Dont’a Hightower 2, Myles Bryant, Adrian Phillips, Barmore, Bentley, Guy, McCourty, Van Noy It bears repeating how spectacularly Allen played Sunday, and how the Bills reached the red zone on every non-clock killing drive. Allen was never uncomfortable for long, escaping pressure and constantly keeping his eyes downfield. Allen averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt on Buffalo’s opening drive — when the Patriots sat back all series — then slowly grew more daring as the Patriots defense allowed him more opportunities downfield. The end of that opening series was the first sign of trouble for Myles Bryant versus Isaiah McKenzie. Bryant tried to pass his short crosser off to Adrian Phillips, but McKenzie sprung free instead and caught the game’s first touchdown on fourth-and-two. McKenzie’s decisive victory over Bryant in the slot wasn’t shocking, but it was mildly surprising to see the Patriots fail to give Bryant more help in the fourth quarter. McKenzie (11 catches, 125 yards) clearly overmatched Bryant early, then finished the Pats defense off late almost by himself. In man-to-man calls, the Patriots could have left a safety over the middle to pick up McKenzie’s crossers or even double him. The only other reasonable adjustment — which the Pats made on the Bills’ last drive — was playing exclusively dime personnel with six defensive backs. Otherwise, Allen defeated everything thrown at him. Outside, J.C. Jackson lost a closer battle with Stefon Diggs, who beat him for a touchdown, a third-and-10 conversion on Buffalo’s final touchdown drive and a fourth-down conversion in the first half. The Patriots’ pass defense was plainly problematic, but failing to stop Buffalo on three of its fourth-down tries was equally troublesome. The Bills also proved they were far more willing to run in Sunday’s rematch than the first meeting, running on three of four first downs during their opening drive. That willingness may have kept the Pats in their base nickel personnel longer than expected. Rough, rough game for Dont’a Hightower, who missed two tackles and looked as slow-footed as we saw in September. The Patriots trotted out three-corner nickel personnel on more than 60% of their defensive snaps, the highest percentage of any personnel grouping in a game this season. That stat, more than anything else, underscored how Belichick had nowhere else to turn with his personnel, even while his secondary got set ablaze whenever the pass rush couldn’t affect Allen fast enough on a given drive.
Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
*11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 21F personnel = two backs, one tight end; 21H personnel = two halfbacks, one tight end; 22 personnel = two backs, two tight ends; jumbo personnel = two backs, three tight ends.
**Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs.
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